2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47 (143-119-27 in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Half; 108-82-20 in last 2 months of season)
2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 13-10-1
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3
*Only over/under bets
Sunday, October 28, 2012 was the last time we saw meaningful baseball. Of course, that was the deciding Game 4 of the World Series, and ironically, it was actually also the night before Hurricane Sandy struck, which is a huge coincidence for me, personally, not just because I lived through it here on Long Island, but also because I expected life to change greatly immediately after baseball - just as I always do proceeding the very last baseball game of the year, although for different reasons, and certainly not to the extent of which it occurred. Literally, life was altered in a huge way immediately following last baseball season.
Five months later, here we are once more, getting set for another season involving The Greatest Sport on Earth. And I have an announcement to make, that I hope is not taken the wrong way at all, and something of which that I can hope everyone can be happy for me… I have been hired by Vegas Insider as a baseball writer/handicapper under my real name of Matt Zylbert. Those of you who have gotten to know me realize that this is a huge opportunity for me, having always wanted to be a sports writer since I was a little kid (Hence the daily 500-1,200 word articles on here pertaining to my dear over/unders throughout last year), yet my Journalism degree that I got after graduating college unfortunately hasn’t really helped. This is an opportunity I’ve been craving for a long, long time and is a big break that I certainly deserve.
I was the only person here - or any site, for that matter - that wrote daily 500-1,200 word articles every single day, literally, for all 6-7 months of the regular season and playoffs. In the same fashion, I never missed a week of football with similarly-composed articles, while hosting one of the consistently busiest threads on the Football Forum every week, and in the process of hitting on more than 56% with my 139-106-8 record. It just goes to show that hard work pays off, as my hard work was noticed and observed, while delivering me an opportunity.
Above everything, I don’t want anyone to take this the wrong way. I have not “sold out” nor have I become a “tout.” Not AT ALL. First off, those people are the ones who don’t care about anyone else, and are only concerned with making money. That, obviously, is not me, as you all should recall me repeatedly emphasizing how you have to stress the “fun” aspect in this hobby more than anything else in order to be successful. The main component of gambling, to me at least, is pride. I know that I know more about starting pitchers than 99% of people out there. I proved it every day last year with my never-ending flow of knowledge. I continually proved it with my excessively correct bold predictions on certain pitchers, such as Lucas Harrell and Eric Stults, two waiver claims that nobody had ever heard of, yet I continually pounded and pointed out how they were destined for stardom from the beginning. Well, “stardom” in my own warped mind, where Bud Norris, Henderson Alvarez, and Blake Beavan are destined to become shutdown top-rotation pitchers; “relevancy” to everyone else. But I’ve always prided myself on calls like that and digging everything there is to know in all those under-the-radar pitchers, while also pointing out which scrubs are actually scrubs and over machines (Corey Kluber!). Thus, attaining a high-end win-loss record with my exclusive -110 over/unders is always my highest priority because of what I alluded to - pride.
But again, please don’t think I’ve “turned my back” or anything of that nature. That is not the case at all. I’ve always been very personal for a reason; I write with my heart on my sleeve, and I will continue to be the eccentric individual that I’ve always been. This is an opportunity I could not pass up, and let’s be honest, it is something that most of you here would not pass up as well. Think of it as a player getting the call to the biggest stage there is (RX obviously has the biggest forum and most visitors, but VI gets the most hits for what they do and the information that they provide) when it comes to sports gambling writing.
I’ve already started there and hopefully you can all be proud of me that my writing often seen here has successfully carried over, first with a 12,000-word team-by-team MLB Preview that I worked very hard on.
I sincerely want to thank everyone here (Even though I’m not leaving, as I’ll still be posting in other people’s threads and give my thoughts and such), starting with BoutMyMoney and Skyla, two of the more talented handicappers anywhere. They are two of the reasons the Baseball Forum is in such good shape, not to mention other excellent guys in Enfuego, HookEmHorns, oFred, and more… if you really think about it, our Baseball core here is probably the most talented of ANY of the sub-forums on here in any sport! I specifically point out BMM and Sky, as they were the only two, along with myself, who were here from Opening Day until the end. But the others I mentioned, and some I didn’t mention, comprise a very, very unique group that each has something different, and useful, to bring to the table.
So again, I want to thank everyone, especially my own readers who constantly contributed throughout my threads last year and during football season as well, while helping my threads regularly be among the most-viewed of all discussions on any given day. It is this, more than anything, that kept me going strong literally every single day for 7 months last season (And every single week for the 6 months of football season). I also want to thank the Mods, who I am big fans of (Particularly BetAll, Murph, Hache, Achillies) that have this place in such good hands. They’re a large reason why The RX is, without question, the most popular sports gambling forums on the internet. It’s not even close.
But please, I mention once more: Do not think I’ve sold out or turned my back. I’m the same eccentric, good person that I’ve always been who is always open to any discussion or question. That’s why I always liked to come off as being very personal on here and responsive. And please, don’t think I’m simply trying to “promote” myself. I’m simply giving all of you an update as to what direction I’m headed, since I’ve been such a big part of the Baseball Forum and continually talked about it, even during football season every week. The RX will always be my home, I love it here, and I will still continue to post so it’s not like I’m leaving. I just don’t want anyone to think that something “fishy” is up when I cannot post my picks here; all I’m doing is answering to an opportunity that I’ve been waiting for in regards to my writing and my pick selection, and I hope everyone here understands that.
With that all said, I’m still going to provide my first over/under of the year, and you can do whatever you want with it. I am doing this because every regular reader of mine knows that Bud Norris is my favorite pitcher in all of Major League Baseball, and I arguably know him as well as anyone out there. After all, my 11-6 record with him in over/unders last year backs it up, which ironically followed a 2011 season in which I went 11-6-1 with him there as well, thus making me a splendid 22-12-1 (64.7%) on Bud Norris over/unders over the past two years. (And for the record, I was 4-2 with Matt Harrison over/unders last year, and 1-4 with him in 2011. I also lost my biggest Harrison over/under last year, which was a lost under vs Ricky Romero on a Wednesday afternoon in Toronto in the first half of the season). This is going to be a tough one, though, and allow me to expand on that…
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Matt Harrison vs Bud Norris
OVER 8/8.5 (Wait till gametime to see if line drops to 8)
There are sometimes certain moments in life that just make you wonder if it was tailor-made specifically for you. After all, from my perspective, how else do you explain the coincidence of this particular matchup? The Texas Rangers, my favorite team, going up against the Houston Astros, the team I’ve bet most on in the past two years (And have had success with, as you can see in my other earlier thread where I posted my records with each team AND pitcher), and who will be sending out my favorite pitcher in ALL of baseball, Bud Norris, for this Opening Day assignment. So, yeah, my favorite team against my favorite pitcher, who is also starting a new era in Astros history, being in the American League now, and not only that, he’ll be facing another guy I adore as well in Matt Harrison, who was actually my favorite player we acquired (Tied with Jarrod Saltalamacchia) in the 2007 Mark Teixeira trade (What a brilliant trade that ended up being). It feels somewhat like a dream. And on national television to kick off a new season?! Just unreal.
Norris, as a lot of you should recall, is someone I know very well, considering I probably wrote more about him last year than anyone else; beat writers included. Despite statistically taking a step back last season, he’s still a frontline pitcher with shutdown stuff, and his full statline didn’t actually do his season performance its correct justice (Ex. Getting lit up in Colorado for 10 or so runs in less than two innings in one particular start, if memory serves me correctly, skewered his stats tremendously). Furthermore, he suffered from blister issues at various points in the year, which obviously limited him in those specific times. But other than that, he looked like his normal dominant self (Ex. Check out his June game log, which I continually pimped last year as one of the greatest single months enjoyed by a starting pitcher), having still flashed greatness throughout portions of the campaign that we saw very often in 2011, leading me to believe that this is still someone who can be a very significant starting pitcher. And I believe he will. HOWEVER, this is a unique scenario. Remember my form of betting: I stress the mentality and mindset above everything else, and as much as I love Norris’ skillset, I’m afraid this is a situation that cannot best maximize his talents. National television, which the Astros never play on; Opening Day, which Bud has never made an assignment for (Although, to his credit, from the articles I have read and interview I witnessed, he does treat this like a huge deal and appreciate it immensely, acknowledging it as a lot of people’s dream growing up). One thing I do like about Bud Norris is that he is tough mentally; even when he has his cases of wildness, which comes with being a hard-thrower, he always hangs in there. He has the mentality of a bulldog. But at the same time, he can get VERY emotional (Because he's very passionate) if you’ve seen his starts, and that can be good and bad. In this specific instance, I think too much emotion can lead to one small dose of wildness, which could cause him to unravel a bit, as the Rangers, even with their losses on offense, still possess a dangerous lineup, and will be motivated right out of the gate. They’ve had great success against Houston in the recent past, and on Opening Night, that can absolutely recur offensively. Even if Norris comes through with a solid start, which he easily can if his stuff is on and he’s mentally stable, the Astros’ bullpen is a huge unknown. Odds are that, like in recent years, it will struggle, although I did like the pick-up of Jose Veras to be the club’s new closer. But even he will be vulnerable, as he’s never closed full-time before, and that could be another contributing factor that leads to some type of outburst of runs late in the game potentially.
Meanwhile, Matt Harrison is on the opposite side of the spectrum, as far as pressure situations go, having already pitched in a World Series Game 7, which is the pinnacle of ALL pressure situations. Still, in that specific scenario, Harrison was a little disappointing (Remember St. Louis jumping out to that early comfortable lead before taking it), and while pitching on Opening Day is a different beast to deal with, I still see the similarities, and therefore, can see Harrison disappoint a little bit to kick off his 2013 season. For one, he’s coming off a horrific spring that saw him yield 8 runs in 12 innings, while registering a 1.46 WHIP. In addition, he only struck out five batters, and considering this is someone who doesn’t really have a knack for striking out opposing hitters, I see that as something that can enable Houston’s offense to get something going early, and potentially often. In fact, I can see Houston winning this game (But I’m not betting it, since I’m strictly only over/unders), as mentally, this is will be their high point. They’ve heard enough crap from the general public and media alike concerning if they’ll become the first team to lose 106+ games in three straight years. And then they’ve been hammered in recent days with the fact that their whole team is making less than Alex Rodriguez this upcoming season, which has to motivate them. How can it not? There are pieces here that can fuel the offense over the long term, specifically one of my top five sleeper candidates this season, Chris Carter (Don’t be surprised if he homers in this one… actually, I’ll call it. And the last time I predicted someone to hit a home run in a game, it was David Ross in the National League wild card play-in game… and he did! Documented here and everything), who is capable of a monster season in the power department, as long as he gets consistent at-bats, which he should. Additionally, you have Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace (Another sleeper candidate who may finally get going), Carlos Pena, and Rick Ankiel all looming to potentially cause damage. My main point is this Astros offense can be better than people think, especially with a DH residing now, and they may get to work immediately with their hunger at its highest point. To say they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, with the whole country watching, is an understatement. If they have to do work against the Texas bullpen, that’s plausible as well. The Rangers lost some pieces from a year ago, which arguably made the unit weaker overall.
I must point out: This is NOT meant to be bet on big. There should be no huge bets involved, as far as the over/under is concerned, with the line being at 8.5. 5-3/6-2/5-2 is all possible, which is why I’m trying to wait for the line to drop to 8. I’d even argue the same thing concerning the outcome of the game, as Harrison, as much as I like him, is no proven stud at all in these situations. I obviously am obsessed with Norris, but other than that, I can see pitching his team to victory. He very may well treat this like it’s the biggest deal of his life, which wouldn’t surprise me. Therefore, while I might say Houston wins, it’s still tough, as is the over/under, of course. If you choose to tail me on the over, WAIT the hours out leading up to gametime to see if it drops to 8. And if you take it at 8.5, certainly don’t risk any type of big amount. It’s only Opening Night after all, and we have 7 months to go after tonight. I’m ready for this new season.
So there you have it, 2,700 words later. It certainly should be a fun way to kick off the 2013 campaign, which I’ve been obsessively looking forward to since, well, the date that began this whole piece of writing, Sunday, October 28, 2012.
2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 13-10-1
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3
*Only over/under bets
Sunday, October 28, 2012 was the last time we saw meaningful baseball. Of course, that was the deciding Game 4 of the World Series, and ironically, it was actually also the night before Hurricane Sandy struck, which is a huge coincidence for me, personally, not just because I lived through it here on Long Island, but also because I expected life to change greatly immediately after baseball - just as I always do proceeding the very last baseball game of the year, although for different reasons, and certainly not to the extent of which it occurred. Literally, life was altered in a huge way immediately following last baseball season.
Five months later, here we are once more, getting set for another season involving The Greatest Sport on Earth. And I have an announcement to make, that I hope is not taken the wrong way at all, and something of which that I can hope everyone can be happy for me… I have been hired by Vegas Insider as a baseball writer/handicapper under my real name of Matt Zylbert. Those of you who have gotten to know me realize that this is a huge opportunity for me, having always wanted to be a sports writer since I was a little kid (Hence the daily 500-1,200 word articles on here pertaining to my dear over/unders throughout last year), yet my Journalism degree that I got after graduating college unfortunately hasn’t really helped. This is an opportunity I’ve been craving for a long, long time and is a big break that I certainly deserve.
I was the only person here - or any site, for that matter - that wrote daily 500-1,200 word articles every single day, literally, for all 6-7 months of the regular season and playoffs. In the same fashion, I never missed a week of football with similarly-composed articles, while hosting one of the consistently busiest threads on the Football Forum every week, and in the process of hitting on more than 56% with my 139-106-8 record. It just goes to show that hard work pays off, as my hard work was noticed and observed, while delivering me an opportunity.
Above everything, I don’t want anyone to take this the wrong way. I have not “sold out” nor have I become a “tout.” Not AT ALL. First off, those people are the ones who don’t care about anyone else, and are only concerned with making money. That, obviously, is not me, as you all should recall me repeatedly emphasizing how you have to stress the “fun” aspect in this hobby more than anything else in order to be successful. The main component of gambling, to me at least, is pride. I know that I know more about starting pitchers than 99% of people out there. I proved it every day last year with my never-ending flow of knowledge. I continually proved it with my excessively correct bold predictions on certain pitchers, such as Lucas Harrell and Eric Stults, two waiver claims that nobody had ever heard of, yet I continually pounded and pointed out how they were destined for stardom from the beginning. Well, “stardom” in my own warped mind, where Bud Norris, Henderson Alvarez, and Blake Beavan are destined to become shutdown top-rotation pitchers; “relevancy” to everyone else. But I’ve always prided myself on calls like that and digging everything there is to know in all those under-the-radar pitchers, while also pointing out which scrubs are actually scrubs and over machines (Corey Kluber!). Thus, attaining a high-end win-loss record with my exclusive -110 over/unders is always my highest priority because of what I alluded to - pride.
But again, please don’t think I’ve “turned my back” or anything of that nature. That is not the case at all. I’ve always been very personal for a reason; I write with my heart on my sleeve, and I will continue to be the eccentric individual that I’ve always been. This is an opportunity I could not pass up, and let’s be honest, it is something that most of you here would not pass up as well. Think of it as a player getting the call to the biggest stage there is (RX obviously has the biggest forum and most visitors, but VI gets the most hits for what they do and the information that they provide) when it comes to sports gambling writing.
I’ve already started there and hopefully you can all be proud of me that my writing often seen here has successfully carried over, first with a 12,000-word team-by-team MLB Preview that I worked very hard on.
I sincerely want to thank everyone here (Even though I’m not leaving, as I’ll still be posting in other people’s threads and give my thoughts and such), starting with BoutMyMoney and Skyla, two of the more talented handicappers anywhere. They are two of the reasons the Baseball Forum is in such good shape, not to mention other excellent guys in Enfuego, HookEmHorns, oFred, and more… if you really think about it, our Baseball core here is probably the most talented of ANY of the sub-forums on here in any sport! I specifically point out BMM and Sky, as they were the only two, along with myself, who were here from Opening Day until the end. But the others I mentioned, and some I didn’t mention, comprise a very, very unique group that each has something different, and useful, to bring to the table.
So again, I want to thank everyone, especially my own readers who constantly contributed throughout my threads last year and during football season as well, while helping my threads regularly be among the most-viewed of all discussions on any given day. It is this, more than anything, that kept me going strong literally every single day for 7 months last season (And every single week for the 6 months of football season). I also want to thank the Mods, who I am big fans of (Particularly BetAll, Murph, Hache, Achillies) that have this place in such good hands. They’re a large reason why The RX is, without question, the most popular sports gambling forums on the internet. It’s not even close.
But please, I mention once more: Do not think I’ve sold out or turned my back. I’m the same eccentric, good person that I’ve always been who is always open to any discussion or question. That’s why I always liked to come off as being very personal on here and responsive. And please, don’t think I’m simply trying to “promote” myself. I’m simply giving all of you an update as to what direction I’m headed, since I’ve been such a big part of the Baseball Forum and continually talked about it, even during football season every week. The RX will always be my home, I love it here, and I will still continue to post so it’s not like I’m leaving. I just don’t want anyone to think that something “fishy” is up when I cannot post my picks here; all I’m doing is answering to an opportunity that I’ve been waiting for in regards to my writing and my pick selection, and I hope everyone here understands that.
With that all said, I’m still going to provide my first over/under of the year, and you can do whatever you want with it. I am doing this because every regular reader of mine knows that Bud Norris is my favorite pitcher in all of Major League Baseball, and I arguably know him as well as anyone out there. After all, my 11-6 record with him in over/unders last year backs it up, which ironically followed a 2011 season in which I went 11-6-1 with him there as well, thus making me a splendid 22-12-1 (64.7%) on Bud Norris over/unders over the past two years. (And for the record, I was 4-2 with Matt Harrison over/unders last year, and 1-4 with him in 2011. I also lost my biggest Harrison over/under last year, which was a lost under vs Ricky Romero on a Wednesday afternoon in Toronto in the first half of the season). This is going to be a tough one, though, and allow me to expand on that…
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Matt Harrison vs Bud Norris
OVER 8/8.5 (Wait till gametime to see if line drops to 8)
There are sometimes certain moments in life that just make you wonder if it was tailor-made specifically for you. After all, from my perspective, how else do you explain the coincidence of this particular matchup? The Texas Rangers, my favorite team, going up against the Houston Astros, the team I’ve bet most on in the past two years (And have had success with, as you can see in my other earlier thread where I posted my records with each team AND pitcher), and who will be sending out my favorite pitcher in ALL of baseball, Bud Norris, for this Opening Day assignment. So, yeah, my favorite team against my favorite pitcher, who is also starting a new era in Astros history, being in the American League now, and not only that, he’ll be facing another guy I adore as well in Matt Harrison, who was actually my favorite player we acquired (Tied with Jarrod Saltalamacchia) in the 2007 Mark Teixeira trade (What a brilliant trade that ended up being). It feels somewhat like a dream. And on national television to kick off a new season?! Just unreal.
Norris, as a lot of you should recall, is someone I know very well, considering I probably wrote more about him last year than anyone else; beat writers included. Despite statistically taking a step back last season, he’s still a frontline pitcher with shutdown stuff, and his full statline didn’t actually do his season performance its correct justice (Ex. Getting lit up in Colorado for 10 or so runs in less than two innings in one particular start, if memory serves me correctly, skewered his stats tremendously). Furthermore, he suffered from blister issues at various points in the year, which obviously limited him in those specific times. But other than that, he looked like his normal dominant self (Ex. Check out his June game log, which I continually pimped last year as one of the greatest single months enjoyed by a starting pitcher), having still flashed greatness throughout portions of the campaign that we saw very often in 2011, leading me to believe that this is still someone who can be a very significant starting pitcher. And I believe he will. HOWEVER, this is a unique scenario. Remember my form of betting: I stress the mentality and mindset above everything else, and as much as I love Norris’ skillset, I’m afraid this is a situation that cannot best maximize his talents. National television, which the Astros never play on; Opening Day, which Bud has never made an assignment for (Although, to his credit, from the articles I have read and interview I witnessed, he does treat this like a huge deal and appreciate it immensely, acknowledging it as a lot of people’s dream growing up). One thing I do like about Bud Norris is that he is tough mentally; even when he has his cases of wildness, which comes with being a hard-thrower, he always hangs in there. He has the mentality of a bulldog. But at the same time, he can get VERY emotional (Because he's very passionate) if you’ve seen his starts, and that can be good and bad. In this specific instance, I think too much emotion can lead to one small dose of wildness, which could cause him to unravel a bit, as the Rangers, even with their losses on offense, still possess a dangerous lineup, and will be motivated right out of the gate. They’ve had great success against Houston in the recent past, and on Opening Night, that can absolutely recur offensively. Even if Norris comes through with a solid start, which he easily can if his stuff is on and he’s mentally stable, the Astros’ bullpen is a huge unknown. Odds are that, like in recent years, it will struggle, although I did like the pick-up of Jose Veras to be the club’s new closer. But even he will be vulnerable, as he’s never closed full-time before, and that could be another contributing factor that leads to some type of outburst of runs late in the game potentially.
Meanwhile, Matt Harrison is on the opposite side of the spectrum, as far as pressure situations go, having already pitched in a World Series Game 7, which is the pinnacle of ALL pressure situations. Still, in that specific scenario, Harrison was a little disappointing (Remember St. Louis jumping out to that early comfortable lead before taking it), and while pitching on Opening Day is a different beast to deal with, I still see the similarities, and therefore, can see Harrison disappoint a little bit to kick off his 2013 season. For one, he’s coming off a horrific spring that saw him yield 8 runs in 12 innings, while registering a 1.46 WHIP. In addition, he only struck out five batters, and considering this is someone who doesn’t really have a knack for striking out opposing hitters, I see that as something that can enable Houston’s offense to get something going early, and potentially often. In fact, I can see Houston winning this game (But I’m not betting it, since I’m strictly only over/unders), as mentally, this is will be their high point. They’ve heard enough crap from the general public and media alike concerning if they’ll become the first team to lose 106+ games in three straight years. And then they’ve been hammered in recent days with the fact that their whole team is making less than Alex Rodriguez this upcoming season, which has to motivate them. How can it not? There are pieces here that can fuel the offense over the long term, specifically one of my top five sleeper candidates this season, Chris Carter (Don’t be surprised if he homers in this one… actually, I’ll call it. And the last time I predicted someone to hit a home run in a game, it was David Ross in the National League wild card play-in game… and he did! Documented here and everything), who is capable of a monster season in the power department, as long as he gets consistent at-bats, which he should. Additionally, you have Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace (Another sleeper candidate who may finally get going), Carlos Pena, and Rick Ankiel all looming to potentially cause damage. My main point is this Astros offense can be better than people think, especially with a DH residing now, and they may get to work immediately with their hunger at its highest point. To say they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, with the whole country watching, is an understatement. If they have to do work against the Texas bullpen, that’s plausible as well. The Rangers lost some pieces from a year ago, which arguably made the unit weaker overall.
I must point out: This is NOT meant to be bet on big. There should be no huge bets involved, as far as the over/under is concerned, with the line being at 8.5. 5-3/6-2/5-2 is all possible, which is why I’m trying to wait for the line to drop to 8. I’d even argue the same thing concerning the outcome of the game, as Harrison, as much as I like him, is no proven stud at all in these situations. I obviously am obsessed with Norris, but other than that, I can see pitching his team to victory. He very may well treat this like it’s the biggest deal of his life, which wouldn’t surprise me. Therefore, while I might say Houston wins, it’s still tough, as is the over/under, of course. If you choose to tail me on the over, WAIT the hours out leading up to gametime to see if it drops to 8. And if you take it at 8.5, certainly don’t risk any type of big amount. It’s only Opening Night after all, and we have 7 months to go after tonight. I’m ready for this new season.
So there you have it, 2,700 words later. It certainly should be a fun way to kick off the 2013 campaign, which I’ve been obsessively looking forward to since, well, the date that began this whole piece of writing, Sunday, October 28, 2012.
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